market_report

6.1 Market

Slide 1 - Cover (LAVisions layout)layout: title_hero · 16:9
Kestrel Wharf
Market & Demand
Why the Floating Harbour, and why now.
MK 01 / 10
Market opportunity
A £450M Bristol student-rental market with a scarce waterfront-managed slice
TAMSAMSOM
£450MTotal market demand
Annual student rental spend across Bristol, rising with enrolment
University of Bristol and UWE catchment.
£175MAddressable bed pool
The purpose-built, managed slice near the campuses
Managed beds, growing faster than the shared-house stock around them.
£78.0MKestrel's scheme
Kestrel Wharf: 420 beds at a £78.0M stabilised value
288 cluster ensuite, 72 large ensuite and 60 studio beds, let across the cycle.
MK 02 / 10
Location and timing
Bristol is one of the UK's tightest student markets
01
Student numbers keep rising
The University of Bristol and UWE together enrol tens of thousands of full-time students, and both are growing. Demand lands hardest on the beds nearest the water and the centre.
02
Purpose-built supply is short
Bristol has one of the largest gaps between full-time students and purpose-built beds of any major UK city. New consented sites are scarce.
03
The harbourside arrived
Bristol's Floating Harbour has gone from working docks to the city's most desirable quarter, with offices, culture and waterside life. Rents follow that shift.
MK 03 / 10
The appraisal
Margin built on a £78.0M value against £58.0M of cost
Net income
Profit per programme
A £78.0M stabilised value against £58.0M of total development cost. Profit of £20.0M, 34.5% on cost and 25.6% on value, across a 33-month programme.
Development margin
Development margin
Blended income near £270 a bed a week across 420 beds, from £245 cluster ensuites to £365 studios.
MK 04 / 10
Total submarket demand
Bottom-up by room type Gross income = beds x weeks x rent, summed across the three room types Type-by-type across the 420 beds unit a = beds of this type; unit b = weeks let; unit c = rent per bed per week
£5.8M
Cluster ensuite Beds 288 Weeks let 51 Rent per week £245 £3.60M
Large ensuite Beds 72 Weeks let 51 Rent per week £290 £1.07M
Studios Beds 60 Weeks let 51 Rent per week £365 £1.12M
Blended £270 a bed a week across 420 beds; ~97% occupancy nets £4.3M Bottom-up, development appraisal 2026
MK 05 / 10
Addressable bed pool £175M

Filters applied to demand:

Product: managed purpose-built beds, not shared houses - 70% concentrates on professionally managed schemes and excludes the shared-house tail
Geography: central Bristol near both campuses - 75% excludes demand outside the walkable catchment around the universities
Student type: full-time who want managed accommodation - 80% excludes part-time students and those who stay in shared houses by choice
Quality: modern schemes, not ageing halls - 93% counts modern, well-specified beds like Kestrel
£450M x 70% x 75% x 80% x 93% = £175M addressable bed pool
TAM
× 90%
× 89%
× 99%
× 99%
SAM
MK 06 / 10
Demand and supply signalsRising enrolment against a tight bed supply
1×2×3×1.0×3.3×27% CAGR202520262027202820292030HESA and agent data, 2026
Bristol full-time student numbers keep rising | HESA
Purpose-built bed supply covers a fraction of full-time students | Bristol City Council
The Floating Harbour is a short walk from both universities | Kestrel
Recent Bristol PBSA has traded at 4.5% to 5.4% yields | agent comparables
MK 08 / 10
Risk and mitigation Four real risks, and each one has a mitigation
Construction cost inflation Construction runs £40.0M, and a swing in materials or labour moves the profit line A 5% contingency and a fixed-price build contract hold the exposure
Lease-up risk Stabilisation depends on letting the direct-let beds in the first cycle A 25-year nomination pre-lets ~65% of beds, so only the direct-let tail carries letting risk
Interest rate and financing risk The senior loan is priced at ~7.5%, and higher rates lift finance cost 60% loan-to-cost keeps debt moderate, and a refinance repays it at stabilisation
Planning and programme risk A 33-month programme carries planning, procurement and construction timing risk Planning is in hand and enabling works start at close, with float built into the schedule
MK 09 / 10
Key Takeaway A scarce, waterfront-managed submarket, well located and deliverable
Total submarket demand £450M
Addressable bed pool £175M
Kestrel's scheme £78.0M
Compound Annual Growth Rate 34.5%
MK 10 / 10