Kestrel Wharf

Development Programme

Land close to stabilisation over a 33-month programme, senior repaid at refinance or forward-sale

R 01 / 18
Programme Land close to stabilisation over a 33-month programme, two ways out at the end
Months 0 to 4Close and mobiliseSite secured, build ready
Land closes, £14.0M site acquiredPlanning conditions dischargedFixed-price build contract signed at £32.0MEnabling works on siteUniversity of Bristol nomination signed
Months 4 to 28BuildSuperstructure to fit-out
Superstructure rises through the frameTopping-out, then envelope and glazingMEP and interior fit-out across the bedsForward-funding draws through the buildNomination pre-lets ~65% of beds
Months 28 to 33Complete and stabiliseLease-up and refinance
Practical completion of the buildingSeptember intake moves inDirect-let lease-up, months 30 to 33Stabilised at £4.3M net incomeSenior repaid at refinance or forward-sale
Equity in first, £23.2M total
Senior draws through build, £34.8M
Loan repaid, ~£8M released at stabilisation
R 02 / 18
Phase one, close and mobilise Land closed, conditions discharged, nomination signed
Superstructure under way by month 4, forward-funding draws begin
Month 0
  • Land closes, £14.0M site acquired
  • Development team and contractor mobilised
  • LP equity of £23.2M committed at close
Month 3
  • Planning conditions discharged
  • Fixed-price contract signed at £32.0M
  • Enabling works and remediation on site
Month 4
  • Foundations and basement begin
  • Forward-funding facility begins to draw
  • PBSA operator appointed
Month 6
  • University of Bristol nomination signed
  • Superstructure starts, senior loan draws begin
  • Nomination pre-lets ~65% of beds
R 03 / 18
Phase two, build Build Milestones
Month 4Superstructure rises through the frame
Month 14Topping-out, envelope and glazing under way
Month 22MEP and interior fit-out across the beds
Month 28£23.2M LP equity fully drawn, senior at peak £34.8M
Month 28Practical completion, handover begins
R 04 / 18
Phase three, stabilise and exit Stabilisation Milestones
Month 30Practical completion, September intake moves in
Month 32Direct-let lease-up to ~97% occupancy
Month 33Stabilised at £4.3M; senior £34.8M repaid at refinance
Month 33+Refinance releases ~£8M, or forward-sale at £90M
R 05 / 18
Strategic Analysis SWOT Analysis
External Internal
Helpful Harmful
Strengths

A secured Floating Harbour plot with planning in hand. A 420-bed scheme at £78.0M gross development value. A fixed-price build contract at £32.0M. A 25-year University of Bristol nomination on ~65% of beds. A 34.5% margin on cost.

Weaknesses

A 33-month programme carries interest and construction risk. A single site with no diversification. Direct-let lease-up on ~147 beds in the first cycle. Value crystallises only at stabilisation.

Opportunities

Bristol student numbers outpacing purpose-built supply. A structural bed shortage in a supply-constrained city. Deep institutional appetite for nomination-backed PBSA. A waterfront address near both campuses.

Threats

A rise in debt costs that lifts carry. Construction cost inflation beyond the contingency. Yield softening at exit. New competing PBSA supply. A senior loan at ~7.5% if the programme runs long.

R 06 / 18
Competitive Analysis Porter's Five Forces
Threat of New Entrants

Moderate. Consented waterfront sites are scarce and planning takes time. A new competitor would need land, consent and a 24-month build. Kestrel has planning and is moving now.

Supplier Power

Low to moderate. The fixed-price contract locks the construction price with the contractor. Subcontractor and material pricing is set at signing, with a 5 percent contingency over it.

Competitive Rivalry

Moderate. A handful of Bristol PBSA schemes compete for the same student. Kestrel sits at the waterfront, nomination-backed end, so it is not a like-for-like fight.

Tenant Power

Low. Students are many and the market is short of beds. The 25-year nomination fixes the rent on the core beds, so the scheme does not depend on any one tenant.

Threat of Substitutes

Moderate. Shared houses, ageing halls, or commuting are the substitutes. Each trades off quality, management, or the harbourside location. Purpose-built supply stays thin.

R 07 / 18
Market Analysis PESTEL Analysis
Political

UK planning and HMO policy set by Bristol City Council. The site has planning in hand. A stable consenting and building-control framework runs through construction.

Economic

Student numbers and rental growth support demand. Debt costs shape carry and exit yields. Purpose-built supply is constrained while enrolment rises. Bristol PBSA trades at 4.5% to 5.4%.

Social

Full-time students want managed, secure rooms near campus. Waterfront, walkable locations draw a premium. The Floating Harbour anchors demand.

Technological

Students book online and expect a managed platform, app-based access and fast connectivity. Building systems and energy performance factor into the choice.

Environmental

Energy-efficient design matters to students and to running cost. The scheme targets BREEAM Excellent with an all-electric plant. Lower bills, lower carbon.

Legal

UK PBSA and HMO regulation, the nomination agreement and the building safety regime set the legal framework. Clean contracts, an assigned nomination and specialist counsel on the team.

R 08 / 18
Business Model Business Model Canvas
Key Partners

The University of Bristol, the PBSA operator, the contractor, architect and engineers, planning, the senior lender and the LP.

Key Activities

Planning, construction management, the nomination agreement, lease-up, and cost control across the programme.

Value Proposition

Managed, modern student beds on the Floating Harbour, income-secured on a 25-year nomination, at £78.0M gross development value.

Tenant Relationships

A university nomination, an operator letting platform, and a managed process from booking through move-in.

Tenant Segments

First-years via the nomination, returning and postgraduate students direct-let, and international students in the premium studios.

Key Resources

The secured harbourside site, the planning and design, the £23.2M equity, and the £34.8M senior loan.

Channels

The nomination agreement, the operator platform, university offices and student portals.

Cost Structure

Land, construction and soft costs, contingency, letting and marketing, and finance cost.

Revenue Streams

Rental income across 288 cluster ensuite, 72 large ensuite and 60 studio beds, £4.3M of stabilised net income at a £78.0M value.

R 09 / 18
Business Model Lean Canvas
Problem

Bristol has strong demand for managed beds but little purpose-built supply. Students face tired shared houses or ageing halls. Modern, well-managed rooms near campus are scarce.

Solution

A 420-bed purpose-built scheme on a consented harbourside plot. Cluster ensuites and studios, full amenity and management, built under a fixed-price contract.

Unique Value Prop

Managed, modern student beds on the Floating Harbour, income-secured on a nomination, at £78.0M gross development value.

Unfair Advantage

A secured, consented harbourside plot. A fixed-price contract at £32.0M. A 34.5% margin on cost. Scarce purpose-built supply in a supply-constrained city.

Tenant Segments

First-year, returning, postgraduate and international students who want a managed room near campus.

Key Metrics

Beds let, occupancy, re-booking rate, rent per bed, and margin on cost.

Channels

University nomination, operator platform, university offices and student portals.

Cost Structure

Land, construction and soft costs, contingency, letting and marketing, and finance cost.

Revenue Streams

Rental income from £245 cluster ensuites to £365 studios, £4.3M of net income across 420 beds.

R 10 / 18
Strategic Analysis Value Chain Analysis Support Activities
Firm Infrastructure

Bristol development entity, clean capital stack, and book-ready development accounts.

Human Resources

The sponsor, a development manager, the contractor's site team, the architect and engineers, and the PBSA operator.

Technology

Design and BIM models, the operator letting platform and CRM, and construction scheduling tools.

Procurement

Fixed-price build contract, subcontractor packages, materials and finance from the senior lender.

Primary Activities
Inbound

Land acquisition, planning, site survey, geotechnical work, and enabling and remediation.

Operations

Construction of the frame, envelope, MEP and fit-out under the fixed-price contract.

Outbound

Practical completion, building-control sign-off, and handover to the operator.

Letting

Nomination agreement, operator platform, university offices, and student portals.

Service

Management, security, maintenance and re-booking after handover.

R 11 / 18
Competitive Landscape Competitive Positioning Matrix
High Quality / Low Price

Kestrel Wharf: managed, modern beds on the Floating Harbour, income-secured on a 25-year nomination, walkable to both campuses.

High Quality / High Price

Premium waterfront PBSA: high quality, but let direct with no long nomination behind the income.

Low Quality / Low Price

Older converted halls and HMOs: lower rent, but tired stock, no amenity and no management.

Low Quality / High Price

University-owned first-year halls: managed, but ageing, first-years only and heavily oversubscribed.

R 12 / 18
Tenant Insight Jobs-to-be-Done
Functional Jobs

When I move to Bristol to study, I want a secure, managed room near campus so I can settle in without the hassle of a shared house.

Emotional Jobs

When I pay for my accommodation, I want to trust the building, the management and the safety, and feel it was money well spent.

Social Jobs

When friends and family see where I live, I want it to feel modern and well-located, in a part of the city people know.

Pains

Little purpose-built supply. Tired shared houses. Ageing halls. Long waiting lists. No management or security.

Gains

A modern, managed room. Full amenity and security. A walkable harbourside address. All-inclusive rent. A well-run building.

Current Solutions

Rent a shared house. Stay in an ageing hall. Commute from a cheaper suburb. Or take whatever the ballot offers.

R 13 / 18
Business Model Unit Economics
Cost per Bed

About £138,000 total development cost per bed across 420 beds. Construction is roughly £95,000 of that, with land, fees, contingency and finance making up the rest.

Value per Bed

About £185,714 of value per bed, from £245-a-week cluster ensuites to £365-a-week studios. Stabilised net income is £4.3M.

Value to Cost

About 1.35 times value to cost per bed, a 34.5 percent margin on cost across the scheme. Bristol PBSA trades at 4.5% to 5.4% yields.

Equity Return

Equity returns at stabilisation: a refinance releases ~£8M, or a forward-sale returns capital in full at £90M.

Profit Margin

25.6% profit on value and 34.5% on cost. £20.0M profit on a £78.0M value.

Pre-Let / Stabilisation

About 65% pre-let on the nomination before completion. Direct-let lease-up months 30 to 33, stabilised by month 33.

R 14 / 18
Strategic Analysis Ansoff Matrix
New Markets Existing Markets
Existing Products New Products
Market Penetration

Let the 420 beds to Bristol students through the nomination and the operator platform. Pre-let ~65% on the nomination, then fill the direct-let beds and stabilise.

Product Development

Offer managed, modern beds with full amenity on the water, at the nomination-backed end for the same student.

Market Development

Reach returning, postgraduate and international students alongside the first-year nomination base.

Diversification

A single scheme this round. Future Bristol or regional PBSA sites sit outside this programme.

R 15 / 18
Strategic Analysis VRIO Framework
Criterion Assessment
Valuable A secured, consented harbourside plot delivers scarce purpose-built beds into a supply-constrained city. A 25-year nomination secures the income. A fixed-price contract protects the margin. The scheme returns 34.5% on cost.
Rare Consented waterfront sites are scarce, and a 25-year university nomination is rare. Few competing schemes combine a harbourside address with covenant-backed income.
Inimitable A competitor would need a comparable waterfront site, consent, a nomination and a 24-month build. Land is scarce and consent is in hand, so the head start cannot be matched inside this programme.
Organized Consented and build-ready today. The fixed-price contract, the £23.2M equity, the £34.8M senior loan and the nomination are in place. The team is mobilised to close the raise and start.
R 16 / 18
Risk Analysis Risk Matrix
Low Impact High Impact
Low Likelihood High Likelihood
Monitor

A sharp rise in debt costs that lifts carry, or yield softening at exit. Watch both; the nomination and the forward-sale option set a floor under the exit.

Mitigate

Slower direct-let lease-up than underwritten and construction cost movement. Mitigate through the 25-year nomination, a fixed-price contract, and a 5 percent contingency.

Accept

Minor material price swings within contingency. Short weather delays. Accept these and spend no management time on them.

Manage

Planning-condition and building-control timing. Snagging at handover. Manage through the construction schedule and monthly site reviews.

R 17 / 18
Programme Summary Site secured, consented and build-ready, one equity round to deliver 420 beds
Milestones Achieved Site secured, consented and build-ready
Next Milestone Land close and construction start
Funding Needed £23.2M LP equity, ~18% net IRR
What's Next Build starts in months 0 to 4, nomination pre-lets ~65% of beds, stabilised by month 33
R 18 / 18